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The 'Vela Incident' (sometimes known as the 'South Atlantic Flash') was an as-yet unidentified flash of light detected by a United States Vela satellite on September 22, 1979. It has been speculated that the flash was the result of a nuclear weapons test; however, much information about the event is still classified.

Contents

Detection

Responsibility

Subsequent developments

See also

Fiction

References

External links

Detection

The flash was detected on 22 September 1979, at 00:53 GMT, by a US Vela satellite that was specifically developed to detect nuclear explosions. The satellite reported the characteristic double flash (a very fast and very bright flash, then a longer and less-bright one) of an atmospheric nuclear explosion of two to three kilotons, in the Indian Ocean between Bouvet Island (Norwegian dependency) and the Prince Edward Islands (South African dependencies) at . It should be noted that the explosion of some meteors as they are entering the atmosphere can produce energy measured from kilotons (Eastern Mediterranean Event) to megatons (Tunguska event).

There is much doubt ^[1] as to whether the satellite's observations were accurate. Vela 6911 was one of a pair launched on 23 May 1969, more than ten years prior to the event, and the satellite was already two years past its design lifespan. It was known to have a failed electromagnetic pulse (EMP) sensor, and in addition had developed a fault (in July 1972) in its recording memory, but the fault had cleared itself by March 1978.
Initial assessments by the U.S. National Security Council in October 1979 and January 1980 were that the event was indeed a nuclear test, and that responsibility should be ascribed to South Africa.^[2][3] Later, the Carter administration summoned a panel of experts headed by Jack Ruina to consider the reliability of the Vela 6911 data. Reporting in the summer of 1980, the panel concluded that the signal "was probably not from a nuclear explosion. Although we cannot rule out that this signal was of nuclear origin." The panel proposed that the satellite was in error and had perhaps been hit by a small meteorite. The fact that the explosion was picked up by only one of the Vela satellites (out of two) seems to support the panel's assertion. United States Air Force flights in the area soon after also failed to detect any sign of radiation.
Many doubt the panel's findings, arguing that they were politically motivated. A considerable amount of evidence corroborating the nuclear hypothesis has been gathered. The Vela satellites had previously detected 41 atmospheric tests, each of which was subsequently confirmed by other means. There were some other data that seemed to confirm the explosion. Hydrophones operated by the U.S. Navy detected a signal which was consistent with a small nuclear explosion on or slightly under the surface of the water near the Prince Edward Islands. The radio telescope at Arecibo, Puerto Rico, also detected an anomalous traveling ionospheric disturbance at the same time. A test in Western Australia conducted a few months later found increased radiation levels.^[4] However a detailed study done by the New Zealand National Radiation Laboratory found no such evidence as did a U.S. government laboratory.^[5] The Los Alamos scientists who worked on the Vela program remain convinced that their satellite worked properly.

Responsibility

If a nuclear explosion did occur, it occurred within the three-thousand-mile-wide circle covering the Indian Ocean, South Atlantic, southern tip of Africa, and a small part of Antarctica.See Jeffrey T. Richelson, ''Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and North Korea'' (New York: W. W. Norton, 2006) page 296.
South Africa did have a nuclear weapons program at the time, and it is in that geographic location. Nevertheless, since the fall of apartheid, South Africa has disclosed most of the information on its nuclear weapons program, and according to the subsequent IAEA report, South Africa could not have constructed such a device until November 1979, two months after the incident. However, American intelligence had detected an unprecedented security lock-down at South African naval facilities the week before the event, which led to suspicions that the putative test was staged from one or more of them.^[6]
Israel almost certainly had nuclear weapons in 1979, but it is questioned whether they had the capability to mount a covert test thousands of kilometres away. If it had been an Israeli test, it was almost certainly done with South African cooperation.
U.S. analysts also considered the possibility that it could have been a covert test by a known nuclear state. They concluded that there would be little motivation for the USSR or China in particular to test a nuclear weapon in such a way, unless they were attempting to make it look like South Africa or Israel were covertly testing weapons. As the flash could have occurred in the vicinity of the Kerguelen Islands, it is possible that France was testing a neutron bomb.
India had carried out a nuclear test in 1974 (see Smiling Buddha) and was also considered as a potential partner of South Africa's nuclear program. The possibility that India would test a weapon was considered, since it would be normal for Indian Navy ships to be in those waters, but dismissed as impracticable and unnecessary.^[7]
It is unlikely any other declared nuclear powers would have conducted such a test. They had little reason to conduct an atmospheric test, and the small size of the blast might reflect a less advanced weapon – though there are many "advanced" reasons for small tests as well, including tactical nuclear weapons (such as so-called neutron bombs) and testing the primary devices for thermonuclear weapons.
Sometimes also mentioned as another potential partner for South Africa in such a test is Taiwan.

Subsequent developments

Since 1980 some new evidence has emerged. However, most questions remain unanswered:

★ In October 1984, a National Intelligence Estimate on the South African nuclear program noted:

"There is still considerable disagreement within the Intelligence Community as to whether the flash in the South Atlantic detected by a US [...] satellite in September 1979 was a nuclear test, and if so, by South Africa. If the latter, the need for South Africa to test a device during the time frame of this Estimate is significantly diminished."^[8]

★ In February 1994 Commodore Dieter Gerhardt, a convicted Soviet spy and former commander of South Africa's Simon's Town naval base, talked about the incident upon his release from prison. He said:
:"Although I was not directly involved in planning or carrying out the operation, I learned unofficially that the flash was produced by an Israeli-South African test, code-named ''Operation Phenix''. The explosion was clean and was not supposed to be detected. But they were not as smart as they thought, and the weather changed – so the Americans were able to pick it up."^[9]

★ On April 20, 1997, the Israeli daily newspaper ''Haaretz'', quoted South African Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad as confirming that the flash over the Indian Ocean was indeed from a South African nuclear test. Soon afterwards Pahad reported that he had been misquoted and that he was merely repeating the rumours that had been circulating for years.

★ Aviation Week & Space Technology/July 21, 1997 page 33 "Admission of 1979 Nuclear Test Finally Validates Vela Data" by William B. Scott/Colorodo Springs

★ In October 1999, a white paper published by the US Senate Republican Policy Committee in opposition to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty said:

"There remains uncertainty about whether the South Atlantic flash in September 1979 recorded by optical sensors on the U.S. Vela satellite was a nuclear detonation and, if so, to whom it belonged."^[10]

★ In his 2006 book ''On the Brink'', retired CIA clandestine service officer Tyler Drumheller wrote of his 1983-1988 tour in South Africa:

"We had operational successes, most importantly regarding Pretoria's nuclear capability. My sources collectively provided incontrovertible evidence that the apartheid government had in fact tested a nuclear bomb in the south Atlantic in 1979, and that they had developed a delivery system with assistance from the Israelis."

Some related U.S. information has recently been declassified in the form of heavily redacted reports and memoranda following applications made under Freedom of Information Act, but nothing that provides conclusive proof over the incident one way or the other. On May 5, 2006, these documents were made available through the National Security Archive.

See also

★ Israel Defence Forces

★ Military history of South Africa

★ South Africa and weapons of mass destruction

Fiction

★ The Vela Incident formed the basis for a novel by Abe Ariel entitled "The Last War". The novel describes the test of an Israeli neutron bomb on an uncharted island.

★ The Vela Incident was probably the inspiration for a Season 5 episode of ''The West Wing'', "The Warfare of Genghis Khan".

★ The Vela Incident is the basis of a 2005 novel by Scott Douglas, "Moby and Ahab on a Plutonium Sea".

References

1. Spying on the bomb Jeffrey T. Richelson
2. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB190/01.pdf
3. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB190/04.pdf
4. Frank Barnaby. 1989. The Invisible Bomb, I.B. Tauris & Co. Ltd., ISBN 1-85043-078-0
5. Spying on the bomb Jeffrey T. Richelson page 289
6. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB190/03.pdf
7. See Jeffrey T. Richelson, ''Spying on the Bomb: American Nuclear Intelligence from Nazi Germany to Iran and North Korea'' (New York: W. W. Norton, 2006), chapter seven, "The Double Flash".
8. Trends in South Africa's Nuclear Security Policies and Programs
9. David Albright. 1994. South Africa and the Affordable Bomb
10. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Cannot Be Verified

External links

★ Proliferation: A flash from the past

★ Report on the 1979 Vela Incident

★ 1979 South Atlantic "Flash" is Consistent with a Nuclear Explosion, According to Newly Declassified Energy Department Documents

★ Israeli Nuclear Weapons Testing

★ The Vela Incident Nuclear, Test or Meteoroid?, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 190, May 5, 2006