''For other presidential elections, see
2008''
A map of the United States showing the number of electoral votes allocated to each state. Under the current system, 270 electoral votes are required for a majority, out of 538 overall.
The 'United States presidential election of 2008', scheduled to be held on
November 4,
2008, will be the 55th consecutive
quadrennial election for
president and
vice president of the United States. There also will be
elections for all 435 members of the
U.S. House of Representatives and
elections for 34 members of the
United States Senate.
As laid out by the
United States Constitution, the individual who receives a majority of votes for president in the
Electoral College — 270 votes are needed for a majority — will be the 44th president of the United States, and the individual who receives a majority of electoral votes for vice president will be the 47th vice president of the United States. If no one person receives a majority in the Electoral College at that time, then the
president-elect will be selected by a vote of the House of Representatives, with each state receiving a single vote. If no vice presidential candidate receives a majority, then the vice president-elect will be selected by a vote of the Senate. These situations, however, have not occurred since
1825 and
1837, respectively.
As in the
2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be partially based on the
2000 Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated on Tuesday,
January 20,
2009.
2008 presidential election characteristics
First election without incumbents in the primaries since 1928
When a United States President leaves office, his vice president is usually considered a leading
candidate and likely nominee to succeed him. The 2008 election will mark the first time since the
1928 election in which there is neither an
incumbent president nor an incumbent vice president running for his party's presidential nomination and thus not running in the presidential election. The
1952 election was the last time neither the incumbent president nor incumbent vice president ran in the general election, as Vice President
Alben Barkley sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination.
[1]
In the three most recent presidential
administrations featuring an outgoing two-term president — those of
Eisenhower,
Reagan, and
Clinton — the incumbent vice president has immediately thereafter run for president. (
Richard Nixon lost the
1960 election,
George H. W. Bush won the
1988 election, and
Al Gore lost the
2000 election.)
[2] [3]
In the
1952 election, the race was between Republican candidate
Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic candidate
Adlai Stevenson; earlier that year, incumbent President
Harry S. Truman allowed his name to stand in the
New Hampshire primary but did not campaign. He lost to
Tennessee Senator
Estes Kefauver and
formally withdrew his name from consideration.
In the
1968 election,
Lyndon Johnson initially decided to seek re-election. He entered the
New Hampshire primary and won. However, he had a national poll conducted, which yielded results against his favor. Therefore, in a nationally televised speech, Johnson announced to the public that he would not seek re-election. Incumbent Vice President
Hubert Humphrey then chose to run and was the eventual
Democratic nominee. Had LBJ stayed in the race and won, he would have served more than 9 years. The
22nd Amendment didn't disqualify him for a second elected term, as he served only 14 months of
John F. Kennedy's unexpired term.
2
The other recent Vice Presidents, such as
Dan Quayle and
Walter Mondale, have also sought the office of president at various times. Mondale succeeded his President, the one-term
Jimmy Carter, as his party's candidate, and Quayle was unsuccessful in winning the nomination for the country's highest office.
3
Current Vice President
Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for president, a statement he re-iterated in 2004. While appearing on ''
Fox News Sunday'', Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say...
If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."
[4] The 2008 race, therefore, will apparently be a non-
incumbent or "open seat" election in which neither the sitting President nor the sitting Vice President will be a candidate, the first time since 1952.
23
Campaign costs
The reported cost of campaigning for President has risen significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both
Democratic and
Republican campaigns are added together (for the Presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in
1996, $649.5 million in
2000, and $1.01 billion in
2004).
[5] In January 2007,
Federal Election Commission Chairman
Michael Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," and that to be "taken seriously," a candidate will need to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.
Although he has said that he will not be running for president, published reports indicate that
billionaire and
New York City mayor
Michael Bloomberg would have been considering a presidential bid of $1 billion of his own fortune to finance it.
[6] Should Bloomberg decide to run as an independent, he would not need to campaign in the primary elections or participate in the conventions, greatly reducing both the necessary length and cost of his campaign.
Effect of the Internet
In late April,
Huffington Post,
Yahoo!, and
''Slate'' magazine announced that they would be hosting one Democratic and one Republican debate for Presidential hopefuls. The debates are proposed to be held after
Labor Day and hosted by
Charlie Rose. Of the debates,
Arianna Huffington remarked "It was clear to me, the 2008 campaign was going to be dominated by what's happening online — new technologies, new media like never before."
[7]
CNN and
YouTube hosted a debate between the Democratic presidential candidates on
July 23,
2007, with questions coming from YouTube viewer submitted videos. The debate took place at The Citadel in
Charleston, South Carolina. In all, 39 questions were asked from the 3,000 submissions YouTube said it received. Different types of questions were asked to the candidates. Most observers agreed that none of the candidates debating particularly outshone their rivals, doing nothing to challenge
Hillary Clinton's position as the Democratic race's front-runner
[8]. A Republican debate was scheduled for
September 17,
2007, in Florida
, but has been rescheduled to
November 28, 2007, at the
Mahaffey Theatre in
St. Petersburg.
[9]
Yahoo! Answers has become a platform for an ongoing Q & A process for voters to ask and answer questions posed by
presidential candidates and US voters
[10] including
Hillary Clinton,
John McCain, and
Barack Obama.
Many of the presidential candidates have been trying to connect with younger voters, through
YouTube[11],
MySpace[12], and
Facebook12. Currently
Republican Ron Paul[13][14] and
Democratic candidate
Barack Obama[15] are most actively courting the
Internet.
[16]
Timeline
Early stages
Federal law requires reporting of funds spent and raised for elections. Potential candidates harboring serious intentions of running in the 2008 election had to create and register a campaign committee before receiving contributions. As the first candidates began filing the paperwork, other politicians felt a pressure to build support before a front-runner emerged, spurring on further declarations of candidacy. News media coverage and attendant "buzz" would increase around certain individuals, and those without an active campaign (and not just a legal status as a candidate) risked being regarded non-contenders. Most potential candidates formed
exploratory committees or announced their candidacies outright by November 2006. The goals of these committees were media attention and fund-raising. Boadcast media discussions by various pundits and a series of events sponsored by the different parties during 2007, including debates, straw polls, and other events were staged to give voters a chance to get to know the candidates. The Democrats, for example, hosted a series of candidate forums and debates in Nevada, which began on
February 21, as well as a debate in South Carolina on
April 26.
The Republican Party also planned events for the candidates, for example, the televised debate at the
Ronald Reagan Library in
California on
May 3, the traditional Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on
August 11. In 1999, two of the nine candidates that participated in the straw poll dropped out of the race for the 2000 nomination after faring poorly there.
"Front runner" status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by July 2007, the consensus listed about six candidates as leading the pack. For example,
Ted Rall lists Clinton, Edwards, Giuliani, McCain, Obama, and Romney as the front runners.
[17]
''
The Washington Post'' listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates."
[18] MSNBC's
Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate.
[19]
Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million, the next closest candidate was
Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million.
[20]
According to a poll featured on ABC News and released February 2007, 65% of respondents stated that they are following the 2008 election closely, a very high number considering that the election was more than a year away.
Official primary and caucus dates
Main articles: Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008,
Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008
Delegates to national party
conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, the
Democratic and
Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This is due to winning candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their party's nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.
February 5,
2008, looks set to be a decisive date, one month before the traditional
Super Tuesday, as up to twenty states, with half of the population of the United States among them, are moving to hold their primaries on what is being called ''Tsunami Tuesday'', ''National Presidential Primary Day'', ''Giga Tuesday'', ''The Unofficial National Primary'' or ''
Super Duper Tuesday''.
[21][22][23][24]
Later events
★ April 2008:
2008 Constitution Party National Convention, to be held in
Kansas City, Missouri.
★ May 23–26, 2008:
2008 Libertarian National Convention, to be held in
Denver, Colorado.
★ July 10-13, 2008:
2008 Green Party National Convention, to be held in
Chicago, Illinois.
★ August 25–28, 2008:
2008 Democratic National Convention, to be held in
Denver, Colorado.
★ September 1–4, 2008:
2008 Republican National Convention, to be held in
Saint Paul, Minnesota.
★
November 4,
2008: All 50 states and the
District of Columbia will hold elections to select members of the
Electoral College.
★
December 15,
2008: Members of the
U.S. Electoral College meet in each state to cast their votes for President and Vice President.
★
January 6,
2009: Electoral votes officially tallied before both Houses of Congress.
★
January 20,
2009:
Inauguration Day.
Candidates and potential candidates
Main articles: 2008 Presidential Candidates
Politicians with ambition have begun to express formally their desire for the presidency in the form of "
exploratory committees," which allow the hopeful to raise money and travel without having to follow certain financial restrictions mandated by federal law. With official events, such as debates and candidate forums, beginning as early as February 2007, the status of a candidate will be based on whether or not he or she is invited. Several minor candidates in the past have tried to litigate their way in, generating some publicity but little public support.
Politicians who have expressed interest in a 2008 candidacy and have not ruled it out qualify for listing in the "Potential candidates" sections.
Major Parties
Democratic Party
Main articles: 2008 Democratic presidential candidates
'Candidates' for the
Democratic Party:
★
Joe Biden,
U.S. Senator from
Delaware (
Campaign Site)
★
Hillary Clinton,
U.S. Senator from
New York and Former
First Lady (
Campaign Site)
★
Christopher Dodd,
U.S. Senator from
Connecticut (
Campaign Site)
★
John Edwards, Former
U.S. Senator from
North Carolina and
2004 Democratic Vice Presidential candidate (
Campaign Site)
★
Mike Gravel, Former
U.S. Senator from
Alaska (
Campaign Site)
★
Dennis Kucinich,
U.S. Representative from
Ohio (
Campaign Site)
★
Barack Obama ,
U.S. Senator from
Illinois (
Campaign Site)
★
Bill Richardson,
Governor of New Mexico and Former
Secretary of Energy (
Campaign Site)
'Potential candidates':
★
Wesley Clark, Former
NATO Commander (
WesPAC)
[25]
★
Al Gore, Former Vice President and former
U.S. Senator from
Tennessee (
AlGore.com)
[26]
'Withdrawn candidates':
★
Tom Vilsack, Former
Governor of Iowa, a presidential candidate from
November 30,
2006 to
February 23,
2007, withdrew from seeking the Democratic nomination due to a lack of funds.
[27]
Republican Party
Main articles: 2008 Republican presidential candidates
'Candidates' for the
Republican Party:
★
Sam Brownback,
U.S. Senator from
Kansas (
Campaign Site)
★
Rudy Giuliani, Former
Mayor of New York City (
Campaign Site)
★
Mike Huckabee, Former
Governor of Arkansas (
Campaign Site)
★
Duncan Hunter,
U.S. Representative from
California (
Campaign Site)
★
John McCain,
U.S. Senator from
Arizona (
Campaign Site)
★
Ron Paul,
U.S. Representative from
Texas (
Campaign Site)
★
Mitt Romney, Former
Governor of Massachusetts (
Campaign Site)
★
Tom Tancredo,
U.S. Representative from
Colorado (
Campaign Site)
★
Fred Thompson, Former
U.S. Senator from
Tennessee (
Campaign Site)
:''Additional third tier candidates have filed with the FEC - See main article.''
'Potential candidates':
★
Newt Gingrich, Former
Speaker of the House (
Winning The Future)
[28]
★
Alan Keyes, Former
Ambassador to the
United Nations Economic and Social Council (
Renew America)
[29]
'Withdrawn candidates':
★
Jim Gilmore, Former
Governor of Virginia, a presidential candidate from
December 19,
2006 to
July 14,
2007, withdrew from seeking the Republican nomination, citing fundraising problems.
[30]
★
Tommy Thompson, Former
Governor of Wisconsin and Former
Secretary of Health and Human Services, a presidential candidate from
April 1,
2007 to
August 12,
2007, withdrew from seeking the Republican nomination, citing a poor showing in the
Ames Straw Poll held on August 11.
Third parties
Main articles: 2008 United States third party presidential candidates
Constitution Party
'Candidates' for the
Constitution Party:
★
Don J. Grundmann of
California (
Campaign site)
★ Bryan Malatesta of
Texas[31] [32]
Green Party
'Candidates' for the
Green Party (
Official Press Release):
★
Elaine Brown of
Georgia[33] (
Campaign site)
★
Jerry Kann of
New York (
Campaign site)
★
Kent Mesplay of
California, California Delegate to the Green National Committee (
Campaign site)
★
Kat Swift of
Texas, co-chair of Texas Green Party (
Campaign site)
'Self-declared potential candidates':
★
Rebecca Rotzler of
New York [34]
★
Cynthia McKinney[35][36]
Libertarian Party
'Candidates' for the
Libertarian Party:
★
Daniel Imperato of
Florida (
Campaign Site)
★
Mike Jingozian of
Oregon (
Campaign Site)
★
Bob Jackson of
Michigan (
Campaign Site)
★
Steve Kubby of
California (
Campaign Site)
★
Alden Link of
New York. (
Campaign Site)
★
George Phillies of
Massachusetts (
Campaign Site)
★
Christine Smith of
Colorado (
Campaign Site)
★
Wayne Allyn Root of
Nevada (
Campaign Site)
'Self-declared potential candidates':
★
Ron Paul,
U.S. Representative from
Texas (
Campaign Site)
★
Ed Thompson, former
Tomah, Wisconsin mayor and 2002
Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate.
[37]
Withdrawn candidates (Minor parties)
★
Green Party candidate
Alan Augustson of
Illinois withdrew on June 30, 2007, to seek instead the
United States House of Representatives seat for the
Illinois' 5th congressional district.
[38]
★
Jerome Corsi was seeking the
Constitution Party nomination, but withdrew on
July 14, 2007.
[39]
★
Dale Thompson,
Bride front-man was seeking the
Constitution Party nomination.
[40] He dropped out around March 19, 2007.
★
Doug Stanhope, comedian, had publicly announced his intentions to run, in Early to Mid 2007, for the
Libertarian Nomination, but withdrew due to
Federal Election Commission regulations on May 3, 2007.
[41]
Independents
'Candidates' running as
Independents:
★
Blake Ashby of
Missouri (
Campaign Site)
★ Don Cordell of
California (
Campaign Site)
★
Joe Schriner of
Ohio (
Campaign Site)
★ Jon A Greenspon of
California (
Campaign Site)
★ Brad Lord-Leutwyler of
Nevada (
Campaign Site)
★ Charles T. Maxham of
New Jersey (
Campaign Site)
★ James H. Mccall of
Ohio (
Campaign Site)
★ David J. Masters of
North Carolina (
Campaign Site)
★ Donald K. Allen of
Ohio (
Campaign Site)
★ Steve Adams of
Kentucky (
Campaign site)
★ David Koch of
Utah (
Campaign site)
★ John Taylor Bowles of
South Carolina (
Campaign Site)
★ Bob W. Hargis of
Oklahoma (
Campaign Site)
★ Thomas J. Kozee Jr. of
Ohio (
Campaign Site)
'Active draft movements'
★
Michael Bloomberg,
New York City mayor.
[42](
Draft Movement)
★
Ralph Nader of
Connecticut [43] (
Draft Movement)
'Self-declared potential candidates'
★ Former Senator
Sam Nunn (
D-
Georgia)
[44]
Opinion polling
Main articles: Opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008
Possible electoral college changes
In 2007, Rep.
Thomas M. Davis (R-VA) introduced the "
DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act of 2007" in the
U.S. House. If enacted, the act would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by one. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the
District of Columbia, alongside an additional electoral college vote award to
Utah in order to balance the addition. The
Congressional Research Service has determined that if passed, the bill would likely be found unconstitutional, on the suggested basis that Congress does not have the authority to grant a Representative to the District.
[45]
The bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to
Utah, which very narrowly missed gaining another seat in the
2000 census, and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1, since Utah is likely to vote Republican and the District of Columbia is likely to vote Democratic. However, this will only be valid until the
next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at 3, as required by the
23rd amendment. The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since
1964, and in the
most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to 539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win.
Potential battleground states
Main articles: Swing state
Pundits and political experts have identified certain battleground states whose close votes may be crucial to the election. These states include (but may not be limited to):
Current swing states
★
Arkansas: Although a conservative state in the heart of the
Bible Belt, the Democratic Party is a powerful force in Arkansas and Democrats tend to have a comfortable advantage in statewide races. Presently, the Governor, both U.S. Senators, and 3 out of 4 of the Arkansas' House members are Democrats, and Democrats control the state legislature by a large margin. The Arkansas Democratic Party tends to be more conservative than the national party, however, and as a result voters there tend to be open to Republican Presidential candidates. Though
favorite son Bill Clinton won Arkansas easily both times he ran, Arkansas gave their electoral votes to
George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 by a fairly large margin. Early polling shows former Arkansas First Lady Hillary Clinton with a huge lead in the state, leading Giuliani 55-37.
[46]
★
Colorado: The "Centennial State" is holding its second
Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The election of
Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American to the U.S. Senate;
Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006 and a U.S. House seat pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats, prompting DNC Chairman
Howard Dean to claim that the West holds the key to victory in 2008, which effectively made
Denver the location of the Convention. Strong
Hispanic-American concentration and the attention of issues such as immigration reform,
labor union support and minimum wage have made this a possible Democratic state. However, Republicans still claim their title on this state because of their support of gun rights and their stance on social conservative issues, and pundits have put Colorado as the initial favorite for the Republicans. A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports in August 2007 has Rudy Giuliani defeating Hillary Clinton 50-40.
[47]
★
Florida: The key player in 2000, which handed its votes to
George W. Bush, making him the effective winner. Florida is situated in the South, which has become a Republican stronghold. Experts agree that the winner of Florida will have a significant advantage towards advancing to the
White House. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since 2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly is seen as a potential boon, due to the party's traditional stance on
Medicare and
Social Security, two key components of winning the elderly vote, in addition to tax cuts and values issues. As for Republicans, the business attention of tax cuts and
Cuban-American attention has made it a strong contender. Also, Florida's recently-elected governor, Republican
Charlie Crist, has enjoyed high approval ratings and has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential nominee on the 2008 GOP ticket. As of August 2007, Hillary Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 49-44.
[48]
★
Iowa: The first in the nation caucus is also first in the list for those who want to ensure their victory in the "Hawkeye State". Iowa has been a true battleground state, in the sense that it went for
Al Gore in 2000 and
George W. Bush in 2004; but, both times, the margin of victory was small, making it a pivotal destination. In 2006, Democrats retained control of the Governor's Mansion with the election of
Chet Culver and the addition of 2 U.S. House seats. Also, for the first time in four decades, Democrats gained complete control of the state legislature, further enhancing the progress of the Democrats. Still, agriculture policies and conservative values make it a magnet for the Republicans. As of
June 11,
2007, Hillary Clinton led Rudy Giuliani 47-41 in a poll by SurveyUSA.
[49]
★
Michigan: The "Great Lakes State" has been a safe bet for the Democrats for a long time, giving its 17 electoral votes to
Bill Clinton,
Al Gore and
John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has diluted, shifting it from the "safe" category to the "leaning" category for the Democrats, opening a window for the Republicans. Populist issues have dominated the state and made it a natural attraction for the Democrats, but Republicans have gained ground in advancing tax cuts and other social issues, following the "
Reagan Democrat" movement. One point of contention is the recent landslide re-election victory for the Democratic governor
Jennifer Granholm, who carries many Michiganders' blame of its declining economic situation. But still, pundits agree that even though the Democratic proclivity is high, there remains a significant vacuum that could be filled by the Republicans. An August Rasmussen Poll shows Clinton with a large lead in Michigan. According to the poll, she defeats Giuliani 49-40.
[50]
★
Minnesota: Minnesota has been a traditional Democratic state in recent decades, but in the past two presidential elections, the elections have been competitive between the GOP and Democratic candidates. The 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate election is also stated to be competitive, with Republican
Norm Coleman running for re-election and commentator
Al Franken actively seeking the Democratic nomination. The Republicans are holding their National Convention in
Saint Paul hoping to sway the election toward Republicans this time. The last Republican presidential candidate to win "North Star State" was President
Richard Nixon in 1972; since then, it has generally been solid ground for the Democrats. But in 2000 and 2004, the margin of victory was small, encouraging multiple visits by candidates in both parties. In 2006, however, the
DFL did pick up a house seat and gained 19
legislative seats and 6
state senate seats. A Minnesota poll by SurveyUSA (June 2007) shows Hillary Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani 50-41.
[51]
★
Missouri: The "Show Me State" has been dubbed as the
bellwether for the nation, determining the mood of the nation for a long time. It is the state who has determined the most winners for the Presidency. The home of President
Harry Truman leans slightly Republican, granting its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has a strong penchant for advancing populist causes, such as
stem cell research and universal health coverage. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female U.S. Senator in
Claire McCaskill. Continuing on that trend, the national mood souring over the
War in Iraq makes this a strong contender for the Democrats. According to an August Rasmussen poll, Clinton edges Giuliani in the state 46-43.
[52]
★
Nevada: The Democrats, on the lobbying of
Senate Majority Leader Sen.
Harry Reid and DNC Chairman
Howard Dean changed the primary date to make it compatible with
New Hampshire,
Iowa and
South Carolina. Even though Nevada has tended to vote for the Republicans, the high concentration of
labor unions and
Hispanic-American vote make it a potential battleground state. The 2006 Gubernatorial election was a competitive one, where Republican
Jim Gibbons won by a slim margin; when the state has tended to support them. For Democrats, the
Las Vegas metropolitan area and its exponential population increase are making it a Democratic attraction, and they are buoyed by the strong disapproval ratings of Governor Gibbons (29% approval rating as of March 2007) and President Bush (34% approval rating as of March 2007).
[53] In the March Nevada poll by Research 2000, Rudy Giuliani led Hillary Clinton 46-38. In that same poll, Giuliani led Barack Obama 44-42.
[54] In addition, Nevada has been won by the victor of every US Presidential election since 1912, with the single exception of 1976.
★
New Hampshire: Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine. Hillary Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 44-40 in a August 2007 poll by Rasmussen Reports.
[55]
★
New Mexico: New Mexico has been long eschewed as a nominal state, in that its status is insignificant and there is no benefit in visiting this low populated state; but that thinking has changed and changed dramatically. With elections being heavily contested and victories being decided by two or three states, New Mexico has become one of the centers of political fighting. In 2000,
Al Gore won by a razor-thin margin and in 2004,
George W. Bush won by a small, yet safe margin. These results have made experts conclude that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes, even though small in calculation, could make significant splashing and benefit the challenger who might lag behind in big states such as
Ohio and
Florida. Its penchant for populist streaks have made it an attraction for the Democrats, with Gov.
Bill Richardson joining the crowd for the Democratic nomination, based on the calculation that Democrats need to win such Western states to advance their path towards succeeding
George W. Bush. A June 2007 poll by SurveyUSA showed Hillary Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani 50-44.
[56]
★
Ohio: "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated
Eric Rademacher, director of the
University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the
Cincinnati Enquirer.
[57] Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in 2004. In 2006, however, Ohio voters elected Democrats
Ted Strickland and
Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator, respectively. A August 2007 poll by Rasmussen Reports had Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani statistically tied, with Giuliani receiving 44% of the vote to Clinton's 43%.
[58]
★
Oregon: A Democratic-leaning state, the belief of anti-big government along with strong opposition to central government control, makes Oregon a GOP favorite; however, intense beliefs in civil liberties and liberal ideology on social issues force it to side with the Democrats. The state has gone to the Democrats from the 1988 election onward. As of August 2007, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are tied in Oregon. According to Rasmussen Reports, Clinton would get 42% of the vote and Giuliani 41%.
[59]
★
Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth
Pedro A. Cortés stated on
March 17,
2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state."
[60] Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to
Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996),
Al Gore (2000) and
John Kerry (2004). President
George W. Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.
[61] According to a August 2007 poll by Quinnipiac University has Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani about tied 45-44.
★
West Virginia: Although registed Democrats in the state outnumber registered Republicans, President Bush narrowly won the state in both the 2000 and 2004 elections with 52% and 56% of the vote respectively. President Clinton won the state in both 1992 and 1996. According to a poll by Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates in May 2007, Hillary Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 42-36.
[62]
★
Wisconsin: Among the closest states in the nation, Wisconsin very narrowly went to Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. These two results were much closer than the results in prior elections, so it could be possible Wisconsin is trending Republican in presidential elections, though John Kerry won by a slightly larger margin than Gore in 2000. According to a June 2007 SurveyUSA poll, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are tied 47-46.
[63]
See also
★
History of the United States (since 1988)
★
United States Senate elections, 2008
★
United States House elections, 2008
★
United States gubernatorial elections, 2008
★
Democratic Presidential Debates, 2008
★
Republican Presidential Debates, 2008
References
1. "Alben W. Barkley", Mark O. Hatfield, with the Senate Historical Office. ''Vice Presidents of the United States, 1789-1993'' (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1997), pp. 423-429.
2. "Historical Election Results: Electoral College Box Scores 1789-1996", U.S. Electoral College / Office of the Federal Register, U.S. National Archives and Records Administration.
3. "Historical Election Results: Electoral College Box Scores 2000-2004", U.S. Electoral College / Office of the Federal Register, U.S. National Archives and Records Administration.
4. Transcript: Vice President Cheney on 'FOX News Sunday'
5. Wanna be Prez? First get 0M Helen Kennedy
6. Billion-Dollar elephant inches toward run Ben Smith
7. "Presidential debates set for cyberspace", Beth Fouhy, AP (and found at ''Msnbc.com''), April 23, 2007.
8. Questions, not answers, highlight YouTube debate
9. http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/08/12/the_gop_youtube_debate_is_back_1.html#more?hpid=topnews
10. " Obama follows Clinton, McCain to Yahoo Answers "
11. "Questions, not answers, highlight YouTube debate", CNN, July 24, 2007.
12. "Candidates court young voters online", Stephanie Garry, ''St. Petersburg Times'', June 8, 2007.
13. Ron Paul's Web of support: He's an 'online natural' USA Today
14. Ron Paul's Online Rise US News
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16. http://www.hitwise.com/political-data-center/ Hitwise political data center
17.
Frontrunners by default Ted Rall
18.
Candidates Unite in Criticizing Bush Dan Balz
19. "Winners & Losers", Chuck Todd, MSNBC, May 15, 2007.
20. "Campaign Finance: First Quarter 2007 FEC Filings", ''The Washington Post'' 2007.
21.
Will Tsunami Tuesday be an Afterthought?
22.
Only Strong Will Survive This Big Bang
23.
Feb. 5: National Presidential Primary Day? Carl Cameron
24.
2008 Nomination: GOP feeling need to compete Molly Ball
25. "Clark considering presidential bid", Staff, ''Arkansas Times'', November 9, 2006.
26. "Gore says he hasn't ruled out another White House run", AP, ''USA Today'', September 11, 2006.
27. Vilsack drops out of prez race Thomas Beaumont
28. "'Great possibility' Newt will enter 2008 presidential fray", Chad Groening, ''OneNewsNow.com'', May 21, 2007.
29. "Alan Keyes discusses the 2008 election on Faith2Action with Janet Folger", Janet Folger, ''Renew America'', April 4, 2007.
30. "Gilmore drops longshot bid for presidential nomination", Warren Fiske, ''The Virginian-Pilot'', July 14, 2007.
31. http://thirdpartywatch.com/2007/06/06/bryan-malatesta-weak-men-make-weak-decisions
32. http://www.theamericanvoters.com/malatesta.php
33. Elaine Brown to Seek Green Party Presidential Ticket Green Party
34. "Tulsa Blogged!", ''Green Pages'', 2005.
35. http://www.reason.com/blog/show/120445.html
36. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2508693105235438933
37. http://gordonunleashed.com/blog/2007/07/31/ed-thompson-considering-presidential-bid/
38. "Augustson to Target Emanuel's House Seat", Augustson2008.us .
39. http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=56676
40. "Christian Rocker Seeking Constitution Party Presidential Nomination", Third Party Watch, February 28, 2007.
41. http://www.stanhope08.com
42. http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/06/19/bloomberg-leaving-republican-party/
43. "Nader Ponders Run, Calls Clinton 'Coward'", Roger Simon, ''The Politico'', June 21, 2007.
44. As Insider First Reported, Sam Nunn's Being Court For Independent Bid - And Now He Confirms Interest Matt Towery
45. Report Questions Constitutionality of Giving D.C. a Vote Mary Beth Sheridan
46. "Clinton Enjoys Big Lead in Arkansas", Rasmussen Reports.
47. "Giuliani Leads Clinton in Colorado", Rasmussen Reports.
48. "Clinton Leads GOP Hopefuls in Florida", Rasmussen Reports.
49. "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #12235", SurveyUSA.
50. "Michigan: Clinton Leads GOP Hopefuls by 9-13 points"
51. "SurveyUSA News Poll #12239", SurveyUSA.
52. "Missouri: Clinton Leads Four Republican Hopefuls By Single Digits", Rasmussen Reports.
53. "Poll: Gibbons Lagging Bush", Molly Ball, ''Las Vegas Review-Journal'', March 14, 2007.
54. "Nevadans in New York state of mind with Giuliani, Clinton at top of poll", AP, March 12, 2007.
55. "Clinton Leads Top Republicans in New Hampshire", Rasmussen Reports.
56. "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #12241", SurveyUSA.
57. Intense 2008 election forecast for Ohio
58. "With Clinton in 2008 Race, Ohio is Still a Toss-Up", Rasmussen Reports.
59. "Oregon: Clinton Struggles in Blue State Against Republican Hopefuls", Rasmussen Reports.
60. "Rendell Administration Supports Giving Pennsylvanians a Voice in Presidential Primary", Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Department of State, March 13, 2007.
61. Bush, Kerry in Reach of Electoral Win, Washington Post, 10/30/2004.
62. "Research shows West Virginia is tilting back toward blue for the 2008 presidential race. ", Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates.
63. "Giuliani vs. Clinton", SurveyUSA].
External links
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★
State by State 2008 Election Poll Results from
USA Election Polls
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Candidate Videos at Election.tv
;News media
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US Elections 2008 from ''
Guardian Unlimited''
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Presidential Candidate Foreign Policy Issue Trackers from ''
Council on Foreign Relations''
★
Campaign '08 from ''
The Los Angeles Times''
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Presidential Election of 2008 from ''
The New York Times''
★
Vote 2008 from ''
The Online NewsHour''
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Presidential Candidates from ''
The Wall Street Journal''
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The Presidential Field from ''
The Washington Post''
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