(Redirected from Scottish Parliament general election, 2007)
The '2007 Scottish Parliament election' was the third
general election[1] to the devolved
Scottish Parliament since it was created in
1999. Polling took place on Thursday,
May 3,
2007.
Local elections in Scotland fell on the same day.
The
Scottish National Party emerged as the largest party with 47 seats, closely followed by the
incumbent Scottish Labour Party with 46 seats. The
Scottish Conservatives won 17 seats, the
Scottish Liberal Democrats 16 seats, the
Scottish Green Party 2 seats and one
Independent (
Margo MacDonald) was also elected. The Scottish National Party formed a minority government as a result of the election, with support from the Greens on certain issues.
The
Scottish Socialist Party and the
Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party, which won seats in the
2003 election, lost all of their seats. Former
MSP Tommy Sheridan's new party,
Solidarity, also failed to win any seats. Margo MacDonald was the only independent MSP to be returned:
Campbell Martin and Dr
Jean Turner both lost their seats, and
Dennis Canavan and
Brian Monteith retired.
Background
The main issues during the campaign trail were
healthcare,
education,
council tax reform,
pensions,
the Union,
Trident (the submarines are based in Scotland), the
Iraq War and more powers for the Scottish Parliament. Some parties are planning to
raise the school leaving age from 16 to 18 and raising the minimum age to purchase
tobacco products from 16 to 18.
Jack McConnell, as
First Minister, entered the election defending a small overall majority of five seats via a coalition of
Labour and the
Liberal Democrats. The
Scottish Executive coalition government had been in power, with three different First Ministers, since the
first Scottish Parliament election in 1999. Opinion polls suggested its majority could be lost in 2007, due to falling support for the Labour Party and rising support for other parties, in particular the
Scottish National Party (SNP). The polls suggested that no single party was likely to acquire an overall majority, nor is there an obvious alternative coalition ready to form a new Executive.
Polls suggested that the SNP, second place behind Labour in terms of numbers of
Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), would gain seats while Labour's support would decline. Based on pre-election projections, there could have been some possibility of an SNP-Liberal Democrat coalition, which might have extended to include the
Scottish Green Party.
[2][3][4][5]The other parties represented in the Parliament before the election were the
Scottish Conservative Party, the
Scottish Socialist Party (SSP),
Solidarity and the
Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party. (Solidarity is a new party, having broken away from the SSP in 2006.)
Other parties that campaigned for seats in
Holyrood included the
United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the
British National Party (BNP), the
Scottish Unionist Party, the
Scottish Socialist Labour Party, the
Christian Peoples Alliance and the
Scottish Christian Party.
Election system
Scanners counting votes in Glasgow's
SECC.
There are 73
constituencies, each electing one
Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) by the
plurality (
first past the post) system of election, which are grouped into eight regions. These regions each elect seven additional member MSPs so as to produce an overall
proportional result. The
D'Hondt method is used to calculate which additional member MSPs the regions elect. Each constituency is a sub-division of a region; the additional members system is designed to produce
proportional representation for each region, and the total number of MSPs elected to the parliament is 129.
The election was the first using
constituencies (see
Scottish Parliament constituencies and regions) that are not identical to constituencies of the
House of Commons (
Parliament of the United Kingdom).
Scottish Westminster constituencies were replaced with a new set of generally larger constituencies, fewer in number, in 2005.
The
Arbuthnott Commission reported in January 2006, concerning the multiplicity of
voting systems and
electoral divisions in Scotland. Council elections on the same day used
Single Transferable Vote for the first time, but there was no change to the Holyrood election system, except regarding use of
vote-counting machines, before the 2007 election. Scanners supplied by
DRS Data Services Limited of
Milton Keynes, in partnership with Electoral Reform Services, the trading arm of the
Electoral Reform Society, were used to electronically count the
paper ballots in both the Scottish Parliament general election and the
Scottish council elections, which took place on the same day.
[6][7]
Election results
|-
| || 'Total' ||2,016,978 || 51.8 ||+2.5|| 73 || || || || || 56 || || 129 || ||
|}
Notes:
Independents contested 17 seats and three regions. Scottish Greens contested 1 seat, Scottish Socialist Party contested 1 seat, Scottish Christian Party, Scottish Voice etc contested a small number of seats. A number of local issue parties also stood in single constituencies.
Constituency and regional summary
Central Scotland
Glasgow
Highlands and Islands
Lothians
Mid Scotland and Fife
North East Scotland
South of Scotland
West of Scotland
Incidents
Delayed counts
Some counts in the
Western Isles (
Barra & the
Uists) were delayed because the chartered helicopter sent to pick up the ballot boxes was delayed by bad weather. The boxes were instead transferred by sea and road to be counted in
Stornoway. The votes were announced around 12.00 on Friday
May 4.
Vandalism
A man smashed ballot boxes with a golf club at a polling station at
Carrick Knowe in
Corstorphine in
Edinburgh. About 100 ballots were damaged, some having to be
taped back together. The man was arrested on the scene.
[8]
High number of rejected votes
The number of 'invalid' ballot papers has increased dramatically from previous elections, and the BBC reported that almost 142,000 (or 7% of the total votes cast) were rejected.
[9] . The Herald reports that this includes both constituency and regional votes, and hence the number of individual voters is likely to be considerably less. Nevertheless there have been calls for an independent enquiry into the implementation of the new voting system. The
BBC Scotland Chief Political Editor, Brian Taylor, described the situation as "a disgrace" during their Election Night coverage.
[10]
Almost certainly the biggest reason for the increase in invalid ballots was that in the vote for the parliament, the ballot papers for the constituency elections were combined with that for the regional lists. A large-type instruction at the top indicated "you have two votes." Being told that they had two votes, far too many voters used both votes on parties in the regional list.
[11] This misleading ballot was made more complicated by two additional features of the balloting: several small parties like the Green Party ran one or fewer candidates in the constituency seats and parties were able to choose to put the name of their leader in the party label for the list seats. Such poor ballot design decisions contributed to
a similarly higher rate of spoiled ballots in the 2000 United States presidential election in areas of Florida such as Miami-Dade and Duval counties.
Another reason presented is that voters were given two papers with two different systems and a different design - one for the parliamentary election where voters marked a cross and one for local councils where they placed numbers as the council elections were being done under the
single transferable vote sytem. Undercutting this theory, however, is the fact that the invalid rate in the local elections was far lower despite being the single transferable vote being a new system for most voters.
A third proposed reason has been that this was the first election where electronic counting of papers has taken place. Many blame e-counting for the increase in rejected papers, in part because the new machine counting did not go smoothly, with many counts abandoned during the early hours of Friday morning before all results had been counted. The main company concerned has been
DRS Ltd.
[1] Nevertheless nearly all invalid ballots would have been spoiled no matter how they were counted. However, the last minute redesign of ballot papers that is blamed for the high number of rejections in two electoral regions was done to make electronic voting easier
[2].
Potential legal action
On
5 May 2007, the BBC reported that Labour were considering legal action against some results (particularly
Cunninghame North, where the SNP beat Labour by just 48 votes) due to the high number of rejected votes.
[12] Labour withdrew this legal action on
25 May2007.
[13] A further challenge is expected from Mike Dailly from the Govan Law Centre on behalf of voters in the
Glasgow region. He said that the result should be challenged because there were 10,000 rejected ballots which could have caused a different result if they had counted.
Solidarity were close to electing one MSP (
Tommy Sheridan) and the Greens were a little short of what they needed to gain a second MSP.
[14]
Party leaders
Major parties
At time of dissolution of the Scottish Parliament at midnight on Monday
2 April 2007, there were five party 'groups' represented on the Parliament's Bureau: Labour (50), SNP (25), Conservative (17), LibDem (17), and the Greens (7). There was also one 'mixed' administrative grouping comprised of 5 independent MSPs and 1 Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party MSP.
| 2007 Scottish Parliament Election - Party Leaders |
|---|
| Scottish National Party | Labour Party | Conservative Party | Liberal Democrats | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | |
'Alex Salmond
Leader of the Scottish National Party' | 'Jack McConnell
Leader of the
Scottish Labour Party' | 'Annabel Goldie
Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party' | 'Nicol Stephen
Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats' |
| 'Age' | 52 | 'Age' | 46 | 'Age' | 57 | 'Age' | 47 |
| 'Parliament' | Scottish Parliament - 2 years (1999-2001)
& UK Parliament - 19 years (1987-present) | 'Parliament' | 7 years | 'Parliament' | 7 years | 'Parliament' | Scottish Parliament - 7 years
& UK Parliament - 5 months (1991-1992) |
| 'Leader since' | 1990-2000
& 2004 | 'Leader since' | 2001 | 'Leader since' | 2005 | 'Leader since' | 2005 |
| 'Profession' | Economist | 'Profession' | Teacher | 'Profession' | Solicitor | 'Profession' | Solicitor |
Of the major party leaders in the Scottish Parliament, only one, Jack McConnell, of the
Scottish Labour Party fought the 2003 Scottish Parliamentary election as leader. Nicol Stephen succeeded
Jim Wallace as Deputy First Minister and Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats in June 2005, after the latter announced that he would not be contesting the 2007 election.
[15] Alex Salmond was elected leader of the Scottish National Party in 2004, with his deputy
Nicola Sturgeon.
[16] Salmond previously led the SNP between 1990 and 2000, but stood down and was replaced by his preferred successor
John Swinney, who headed the party between 2000 and 2004. After Swinney's resignation in 2004, Salmond announced that he would, once again contest the leadership and won the ballot of members in June 2004. Annabel Goldie was elected leader of the
Scottish Conservatives in November 2005
[17] after the resignation of the incumbent
David McLetchie on
31 October 2005 after a row surrounding
taxi expenses.
[18]
Minor parties
Robin Harper and
Shiona Baird were elected as
Scottish Green Party Co-convenors in 2004, but as the sole Green MSP Robin Harper was effectively party
spokesperson from 1999.
[19]
Colin Fox was elected as the
Scottish Socialist Party Convenor in 2005.
Opinion polls
The first figure for each party is for the 1st,
first-past-the-post, constituency, vote; the second figure is for the 2nd,
proportional representation, regional, vote. The
Scottish Green Party and the
Scottish Socialist Party ran only one constituency candidate each in the 2007 election - Greens in Glasgow Kelvin, SSP in Paisley North - so constituency values in polls for those parties have little meaning.
ICM,
Ipsos MORI,
Populus,
YouGov and TNS System Three (a subsidiary of
Taylor Nelson Sofres) are all members of the
British Polling Council (BPC), and therefore fully disclose the methodology used, and publish tables of the detailed statistical findings. Scottish Opinion (a brand of
Progressive Partnership) and
mruk are not BPC members.
''
The Scotsman'' stated that the findings of their April 3 poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: SNP 44 MSPs (+17), Labour 39 MSPs (-11), Liberal Democrats 24 MSPs (+7), Conservative 15 MSPs (-3).
''
The Sunday Times'' (12 January) stated that the findings of their poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: Labour 42 MSPs (-8), SNP 38 MSPs (+11), Liberal Democrats 19 MSPs (+2), Conservative 17 MSPs (-1), Scottish Greens 9 MSPs (+2), others 4 MSPs (-6).
Constitutional issue
Several polls have been carried out on whether voters would support
independence for Scotland, a key issue in this election and a central policy of the SNP. However, the results of such polls have historically been proven to be sensitive to the wording of the question used.
★ On
10 September 2006 ''
The Sunday Times Scotland'' published an opinion poll
[20] conducted by
YouGov. 1176 respondents were interviewed between
5 September and
7 September 2006.
[21] The survey found that 44% were in favour when asked "If there were a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become an independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, how would you be inclined to vote?" 42% were against, and 15% did not know. 64% were in favour of giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, with 19% disagreeing.
★ A September
2006 poll by the research agency
Yougov showed that 44% of respondents said they would back a separate Scotland in an independence referendum compared with 42% who did not.
[22][23][24]
★ A poll by ''
The Scotsman'' in October 2006 suggested that 51% of Scots would be in favour of independence, with 39% against.
[25]
★ A ''
Daily Telegraph'' poll shows that a significant proportion of Britons would accept the breakup of the UK.
[26]
★ On
1 November 2006, ''
The Scotsman'' published an
opinion poll[27] conducted by
ICM. The survey found that 51% were in favour of
Scottish independence, with 37% against.
When polls give three options, including an option for greater devolution but stopping short of independence, support for full independence is much lower. In a poll by ''
The Times'', published on 20 April 2007, given a choice between independence, the ''status quo'', or greater powers for the Scottish Parliament within the United Kingdom, the latter option had majority supprt (56%) with only 22% supporting full independence.
[28] Even among SNP voters, more (47%) supported a more powerful Parliament than full independence (45%).
Other issues
On 4 April the BBC published the findings of a poll it had commissioned from
ICM. The 1001 respondents were asked to rank a given list of issues, in the order which they thought "should be the priorities of the new parliament?"
[29][30] The respondents ranked the main issues as follows:
#
Schools/
health
#
Police on streets
#
Council tax for 65s+
#Local
hospitals
#
Farming/
fishing
#
Young offenders curfew
#
Free school meals
#
Buses/trains (not roads)
#Scrap tuition fees
#
Community sentences
Top target seats of the main parties
Below are listed all the constituencies which required a
swing of less than 5% from the 2003 result to change hands.
Many of the seats that changed hands are not listed here. For example, the Scottish National Party gained several seats (
Stirling,
Edinburgh East & Musselburgh,
Gordon,
Livingston and
Argyll & Bute) with very large swings, yet did not gain any of their top three targets.
Labour targets
SNP targets
Conservative targets
Liberal Democrat targets
MSPs who retired at the general election
Labour
★
Susan Deacon,
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh [3]
★
John Home Robertson,
East Lothian [4]
★
Janis Hughes,
Glasgow Rutherglen [5]
★
Kate Maclean,
Dundee West [6]
★
Maureen MacMillan,
Highlands and Islands list
[7]
Scottish National Party
★
Bruce McFee,
West of Scotland list
[8]
★
George Reid,
Ochil [9]
Conservative
★
Phil Gallie,
South of Scotland list
[10]
★
James Douglas-Hamilton,
Lothians list
[11]
Liberal Democrats
★
Donald Gorrie,
Central Scotland list
[12]
★
Jim Wallace,
Orkney [13]
Scottish Socialist Party
★
Frances Curran,
West of Scotland list
[14]
Independents
★
Dennis Canavan,
Falkirk West [15]
★
Brian Monteith (elected as a Conservative),
Mid Scotland and Fife list
[16]
References
1. Scotland Act 1998 - Part I - Section 2 - General elections
2. ''Somewhere over the Rainbow Coalition...'' Scotsman 12 May 2005
3. ''Panic within Labour as membership falls'' Scotsman 5 March 2006
4. ''Lib Dems open door to coalition with SNP'' Scotsman 7 March 2006
5. ''Is this the end of Lab-Lib Dem pact?'' Scotsman 24 March 2006
6. "Electronic counting to take over from tellers at elections", ''The Scotsman'', 19 April 2006
7. "Green light for DRS & ERS to deliver e-Count for 2007 Scottish Elections", press release, DRS Data Services Limited
8. Polling clerk tells of 'bedlam', BBC News website, 2007-05-03
9. Rejected ballots '7% of the vote', BBC News website, 2007-05-09
10. Elections marred by vote problems, BBC News website, 2007-05-03
11. The Scotsman
12. Labour may challenge Scots vote, ''BBC News''
13. No Labour challenge over election BBC Online, 25 May 2007
14. Holyrood vote may face challenges, ''BBC News''
15. Lib Dems choose Stephen as leader
16. Salmond is SNP leader again with Sturgeon as No 2
17. Tories have their 'coronation' as Goldie becomes leader unopposed
18. McLetchie finally quits over taxi row
19. SCOTTISH GREEN PARTY ELECTS NEW PARTY CO-CONVENERS
20. "Labour turmoil as Scots back independence", ''The Sunday Times - Scotland'', 10 September, 2006
21. YouGov / Sunday Times (Scotland) Survey Results, YouGov plc
22. The Sunday Times Online, September 10, 2006 Support Doubles for Scottish independence
23. Epolitix, September 2006 Support for Scottish independence rises
24. The Sunday Times Online, September 10, 2006 Labour in turmoil as Scots back independence
25. politics.guardian.co.uk/scotland/story/0,,1937975,00.html
26. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/11/26/nunion26.xml
27. "Vital gains forecast for SNP in swing from Labour", ''The Scotsman'', 1 November 2006
28. How SNP could win and lose at the same time, The Times, 2007-04-20
29. 'Voters get behind public services', BBC News website, 4 April 2007
30. Detailed statistics from ICM
See also
★
Elections in Scotland
★
National Assembly for Wales election and
United Kingdom local elections, 2007, which took place on the same day
External links
★
Holyrood 2007, by e-Democracy Centre, Faculty of Law,
University of Geneva, with support from the
University of Edinburgh
★
ScotlandVotes, by
Weber Shandwick Public Affairs and ''
Scotland on Sunday''
★
Scottish Politics, by Alba Publishing
★
Scottish Voting Intention, by UKPollingReport, in association with
YouGov
★
VoteScotland, a
Scottish Executive and
Electoral Commission website
★
Electoral Reform Society - Scotland
★
Scottish elections 2007, at the
BBC News website
★
Election 2007, at ''
The Herald''
★
Holyrood Elections, at ''
The Scotsman''
★
Election Supplement 2007
★
Scottish Elections Between 1997 and 2007
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