The 'New Hampshire primary' is the first of a number of statewide
political party primary elections held in the
United States every four years, as part of the process of the Democratic and Republican parties choosing their candidate for the presidential elections on the subsequent November. Held in the small New England state of
New Hampshire, it traditionally marks the opening of the quadrennial
U.S. presidential election, although that status is threatened in 2007, as both the
Republican and
Democratic National Committees are moving to give more populous states a bigger influence in the
presidential race.
[1] Individual states are also seeking a bigger role in the selection of party nominees on their own.
[1]
Since 1952, the primary has been a major testing ground for candidates for the Republican and Democratic nominations. Candidates who do poorly usually drop out, while lesser-known, underfunded candidates who do well suddenly become contenders, gaining huge amounts of media attention and money. The media gives New Hampshire - and
Iowa, the first state to hold a party
caucus, usually a week before the New Hampshire primary - about half of all the attention paid to all states in the primary process, magnifying the state's decision power.
[2] This has spurred repeated efforts by out-of-state Democrats to change the rules and by other states to try to attain the status of being the first primary in the nation.
[1]
Significance
Since
1977,
New Hampshire law has stated that its primary is to be the first in the nation. As a result, the state has had to move its primary, originally in March, earlier in the year to remain the first. For example, the primary was held on February 20 in
1996, then February 1 in
2000, and January 27 in
2004, to compete with earlier primaries in other states.
Before the less-binding
Iowa caucus first received national attention in the 1970s, the New Hampshire primary was the first binding indication of which presidential candidate would receive the party nomination. In defense of their primary, voters of New Hampshire have tended to downplay the importance of the Iowa caucus. "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents," said then-Governor
John H. Sununu in 1988.
Since then, the primary has been considered an early measurement of the national attitude toward the candidates for nomination. Unlike a
caucus, the
primary measures the number of votes each candidate received directly, rather than through precinct delegates. The fact that the primary is based on the
popular vote means that it gives less well known candidates a chance to pull ahead. Unlike most other states, New Hampshire permits independents, not just registered party members, to vote in a party's primary.
New Hampshire's status as the first-in-the-nation is somewhat controversial among Democrats because liberals consider the state too white and too conservative; 2000 Census data show it is 96% white, versus 75% nationally. Politically however, the state does offer a wide sampling of different types of voters. Although it is a
New England state, it is not as
liberal as some of its neighbors. For example, according to one exit poll, of those who participated in the 2004 Democratic Primary, 4 in 10 voters were independents, and just over 50% said they considered themselves "liberal." Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered
Democrats and 36.7% are
Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared"
independents. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a
swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.
Recently,
media expectations for the New Hampshire primary have come to be almost as important as the results themselves; meeting or beating expectations can provide a candidate with national attention, often leading to an infusion of donations to a campaign that has spent most of its reserves. For example, in 1992,
Bill Clinton, although he did not win, did surprisingly well, with his team dubbing him the "Comeback Kid"; the extra media attention helped drive him to victory in later primaries.
New Hampshire's political importance as the first in the nation primary state is highlighted in the documentary film
Winning New Hampshire. The film focuses on
John Kerry's comeback in 2004 and the decisive effect of the New Hampshire Primary on the Presidential selection process.
History
New Hampshire has held a presidential primary since 1916, but it did not begin to assume its current importance until 1952, when
Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated his broad voter appeal by defeating
Robert A. Taft, "Mr. Republican," who had been favored for the nomination, and
Estes Kefauver defeated incumbent President
Harry S. Truman, leading Truman to abandon his campaign for a third term.
The other President to be forced from running for re-election by New Hampshire voters was
Lyndon Johnson, who, as a
write-in candidate, managed only a 49-42 percent victory over
Eugene McCarthy in 1968 (and won fewer delegates than McCarthy), and consequently withdrew from the race.
[2] Before 1992 the person elected president had always carried the primary, but Bill Clinton broke the pattern in 1992, as did
George W. Bush in 2000. Moreover, the winner in New Hampshire has not always gone to win his party's nomination, as demonstrated by Republicans
John McCain in 2000 and
Pat Buchanan in 1996.
1968
The 1968 New Hampshire Democratic Primary was easily one of the most important and turbulent events in the politics of the crucial year.
Senator Eugene McCarthy began his campaign with a famous poem that he wrote, in imitation of the poet
Robert Lowell, "Are you running with me Jesus.":
:''I'm not matching my stride''
:''With Billy Graham's by the Clyde''
:''I'm not going for distance''
:''With the Senator's persistence''
:''I'm not trying to win a race''
:''even at George Romney's pace.''
:''I'm an existential runner,''
:''Indifferent to space''
:''I'm running here in place ...
:''Are you with me Jesus ?''
[4]
A principle architect of the McCarthy candidacy was
Allard Kenneth Lowenstein who approached the Senator after speaking with several perspective candidates including
Robert F. Kennedy.
Lowenstein drew on college campuses across the country as a source of manpower and strength.
At first funding was sparse; however, after the
Tet Offensive, money flowed into the campaign.
Senator Kennedy's entry into the race also brought a great number of dollars into the campaign to
"stop Kennedy."
In Nov. of 1967 Gene McCarthy declared, that "there comes a time when an honorable man simply has to raise the flag" to gage the country's response and conduct a candidacy for the presidency of the United States by entering the New Hampshire democratic primary.
Senator Eugene McCarthy won the primary by forcing Johnson out of the race and reducing his margin of victory, whose campaign staff poor mouthed furiously in the closing weeks, declaring that their candidate, President Johnson, was the underdog.
The shift in Democratic primary voters was understood to have occurred because of the
Tet Offensive, demonstrating the inability to achieve progress on the part of the Johnson Administration in the war in Vietnam.
Richard Goodwin famously made the remark to
Seymour Hersch "with these two typewriters we are going to overthrow the American government."
[5]
Paul Newman was a fixture on the campaign trail alongside the Senator, keeping him refreshed and working with him in calling people forth to stand for peace.
President Johnson would subsequently withdraw from the election following the 1968 New Hampshire Primary in a statement that soon followed, "I shall not seek and will not accept the nomination of my party for another term in office."
On March 15th, 1968, Gene McCarthy came 7 % points shy of defeating the President in New Hampshire.
Future
Chart summarizing all GOP polling data in New Hampshire to date. When polling began in early 2007, Giuliani (burgandy) and McCain (light blue) were far and away the favorites. Since then, Giuliani has dropped from an average of about 26% to about 19%. McCain has dropped from an average of about 32% to about 14%. Romney (yellow) has emerged as the favorite currently averaging about 32% of the vote. Although not yet a declared candidate, Thompson (purple) shows support that is comparable to McCain, currently averaging about 14%.
[6]
Following the 2004 presidential election, some elements in the
Democratic Party proposed new primary calendars that would end the New Hampshire primary's first in the nation status. The Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling issued a report at the end of 2005, recommending adding several caucuses ahead of New Hampshire's primary. The recommendations have been approved by the full
Democratic National Committee. However, New Hampshire state law requires the primary to take place seven days before any other "similar contest," which state officials have always interpreted to mean any contest other than Iowa's caucus. The Republican Party, meanwhile, has maintained its support of the current primary calendar. New Hampshire officials indicate they will force candidates who want to campaign in the state to follow New Hampshire rules and skip any primary that is "too close" in time. It is unlikely that a serious candidate could risk skipping New Hampshire with its vast media attention. Furthermore the penalty for breaking DNC rules is trivial: the National Convention can strip away the delegates won in New Hampshire--but those are few. Of course, the Presidential nominee controls the convention and is unlikely to strip away his or her own delegates.
References
★
First in the Nation: New Hampshire and the Premier Presidential Primary, , Charles, Brereton, Peter E. Randall, 1987, ISBN 0-914339-20-6
★
Hart and Soul: Gary Hart's New Hampshire Odyssey... and Beyond, , Susan Berry, Casey, NHI Press, 1986, ISBN 0-9617115-0-7
★
Who the Hell Is William Loeb?, , Kevin, Cash, Amoskeag Press, 1975,
★
The New Hampshire Primary and the American Electoral Process, , Niall A., Palmer, Praeger, 1997, ISBN 0-275-95569-9 online version
★
Stormy Weather: The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics, , Dante J., Scala, Palgrave Macmillan, 2003, ISBN 0-312-29622-3
Winners and runners-up
''Notes: Winner is listed first. Candidates in 'bold' went on to win their party's nomination.''
Democrats
★ 2004: Senator 'John Kerry' defeated Governor
Howard B. Dean III, General
Wesley K. Clark, Senator
John Edwards, Senator
Joseph I. Lieberman, Congressman
Dennis J. Kucinich and Reverend
Al Sharpton.
★ 2000: Vice President '
Al Gore' defeated Senator
Bill Bradley
★ 1996: President 'Bill Clinton' (no serious opposition)
★ 1992: Senator
Paul Tsongas defeated Governor 'Bill Clinton', Senator
Bob Kerrey, Senator
Tom Harkin, and Governor
Jerry Brown
★ 1988: Governor '
Michael Dukakis' defeated Congressman
Richard A. "Dick" Gephardt, Senator
Paul Simon (politician), Reverend
Jesse L. Jackson, and Senator Al Gore
★ 1984: Senator
Gary Hart defeated Vice President '
Walter Mondale', Senator
John Glenn, Reverend Jesse L. Jackson, and Senator
George McGovern
★ 1980: President '
Jimmy Carter' defeated Senator
Edward Kennedy and Governor Jerry Brown.
★ 1976: Governor 'Jimmy Carter' defeated Congressman
Mo Udall, Senator
Birch Bayh, Senator
Fred R. Harris, and Ambassador
R. Sargent Shriver
★ 1972: Senator
Edmund Muskie defeated Senator 'George McGovern' and Mayor
Samuel William Yorty
★ 1968: President
Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Senator
Eugene McCarthy
★ 1964: President 'Lyndon B. Johnson' (no serious opposition)
★ 1960: Senator '
John F. Kennedy' (no serious opposition)
★ 1956: Senator Estes Kefauver defeated Governor '
Adlai E. Stevenson II'
★ 1952: Senator Estes Kefauver defeated President Harry S. Truman
★ 1948: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1944: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1940: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1936: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1932: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1928: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1924: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1920: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1916: President '
T. Woodrow Wilson' (unopposed)
Republicans
★ 2004: President 'George W. Bush' (no serious opposition)
★ 2000: Senator John McCain defeated Governor 'George W. Bush',
Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes, Jr., Ambassador
Alan Keyes, and
Gary L. Bauer
★ 1996: Pat Buchanan defeated Senator '
Bob Dole', Governor
A. Lamar Alexander, Steve Forbes, Senator
Richard G. "Dick" Lugar, and Ambassador Alan Keyes
★ 1992: President 'George H. W. Bush' defeated
Patrick J. "Pat" Buchanan
★ 1988: Vice President 'George H. W. Bush' defeated Senator Bob Dole, Congressman
Jack F. Kemp, Jr., Governor
Pierre S. "Pete" du Pont IV, and Reverend
Marion G. "Pat" Robertson
★ 1984: President '
Ronald Reagan' (no serious opposition)
★ 1980: Governor 'Ronald Reagan' defeated Ambassador
George H. W. Bush, Senator
Howard H. Baker, Jr., Congressman
John B. Anderson, and Congressman
Philip M. "Phil" Crane
★ 1976: President '
Gerald R. Ford' defeated Governor Ronald Reagan
★ 1972: President '
Richard Nixon' defeated Congressman
Paul N. "Pete" McCloskey, Jr. and Congressman
John M. Ashbrook
★ 1968: Vice President 'Richard M. Nixon' defeated Governor
George Romney
★ 1964: Ambassador
Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. defeated Senator '
Barry M. Goldwater', Governor
Nelson A. Rockefeller, and Vice President Richard Nixon
★ 1960: Vice President 'Richard Nixon' (no serious opposition)
★ 1956: President 'Dwight D. Eisenhower' (no serious opposition)
★ 1952: General 'Dwight D. Eisenhower' defeated Senator Robert Taft and Governor Harold Stassen
★ 1948: Governor
Harold E. Stassen defeated Governor '
Thomas E. Dewey'
★ 1944: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1940: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1936: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1932: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1928: ''Unpledged delegates''
★ 1924: President '
John Calvin Coolidge, Jr.' (unopposed)
★ 1920: General
Leonard Wood, Jr. defeated Senator
Hiram W. Johnson
★ 1916: ''Unpledged delegates''
2004 Democratic results
Sources: ''Union-Leader'' (
Manchester, NH), CNN,
New Hampshire Department of State
2004 Republican results
Sources: Concord Monitor,
New Hampshire Department of State,
[3],
[4],
[5]
2000 Democratic results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|
| 'Al Gore' | 76,681 | 52 | 13 |
| Bill Bradley | 69,933 | 48 | 9 |
| Other | 1,184 | 0 | 0 |
| 'Total' | '147,798' | '100' | '22 (of 27)' |
Source: CNN
2000 Republican results
Source: CNN
Vice-Presidential results
A much-overlooked Vice-Presidential ballot is also held at the New Hampshire Primary. The following candidates received the greatest number of votes at each election.
★ - write-in candidate
Sources:
New Hampshire Department of State,
New Hampshire Political Library
Resources
★ ''
Winning New Hampshire'', a film on the history and significance of the NH Primary, 2004
★
The New Hampshire Political Library
★
2004 primary results (CNN)
★
2000 primary results (CNN)
★ http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/7812403.htm
★ http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/09/powerlines-meyerson.php
★ http://www.nhprimary.com Local coverage of the primary from The Telegraph of Nashua, NH.
★ http://www.thenewhampshireprimary.com Local coverage of the primary from SeacoastOnline.com and Seacoast Media Group in Portsmouth, NH.
1. Scala 2003
2. In 2004 48% of the TV spending by candidates went to the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
3. Scala 2003
4. ''Society on the Run: A European View of Life'' Werner Peters page xi contribution by Senator Eugene McCarthy
5. ''1968 in America: Music, Politics, Chaos, Counterculture, and the Shaping of a Generation'' Charles Kaiser Chapter: The Truth Comes Home P 113
6. Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#New_Hampshire
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