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Israel is widely believed to possess a substantial arsenal of nuclear weapons,[1] and maintains intercontinental-range ballistic missiles to deliver them. Officially Israel neither confirms nor denies possessing nuclear weapons. The U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment has recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared chemical warfare capabilities, and an offensive biological warfare program.
Nuclear weapons
Main articles: Nuclear weapons and Israel
The Israeli government refuses to officially confirm or deny whether it has a nuclear weapon program. It has an unofficial but rigidly enforced policy of deliberate ambiguity, saying only that it would not be the first to "introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East".[2] In the late 1960s, Israeli Ambassador Yitzhak Rabin informed the United States State Department, that its understanding of "introducing" such weapons meant that they would be tested and publicly declared, while merely possessing the weapons did not constitute "introducing" them.[3] Israel is widely believed to be one of four nuclear-armed countries not recognized as a Nuclear Weapons State by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the other three being India, Pakistan and North Korea.[4] The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei regards Israel as a state possessing nuclear weapons.[5] In a December 2006 interview, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Iran aspires "to have a nuclear weapon as America, France, Israel and Russia."[6] Olmert's office later said that the quote was taken out of context; in other parts of the interview, Olmert refused to confirm or deny Israel's nuclear weapon status.[7]
Development program
Israel first showed interest in procuring nuclear materials in 1949, when a unit of the IDF Science Corps carried out a two year geological survey of the Negev. One objective of this was to find sources of uranium.[8] In June 1952, German-born chemist Ernst David Bergmann was appointed by Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion to be the first chairman of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC). Also appointed head Division of Research and Infrastructure of the Ministry of Defense earlier that same year, Bergmann used the Defense unit as the "chief laboratory" of the IAEC, and during this time developed the capablity to extract uranium from the Negev and produce indigenous heavy water.
At this point in the mid-1950s Israel's nuclear weapons program began receiving aid from other countries. By the Suez crisis in 1956, according to the preleminary Protocol of Sèvres France agreed to help Israel build a nuclear reactor and reprocessing plant near Dimona which used natural uranium moderated by heavy water. Plutonium production started in about 1964. Top secret British documents obtained by BBC ''Newsnight'' show that Britain made hundreds of secret shipments of restricted materials to Israel in the 1950s and 1960s. These included specialist chemicals for reprocessing and samples of fissile material—uranium-235 in 1959, and plutonium in 1966, as well as highly enriched lithium-6 which is used to boost fission bombs and fuel hydrogen bombs. The investigation also showed that Britain shipped 20 tons of heavy water directly to Israel in 1959 and 1960 to start up the Dimona reactor. The transaction was made through a Norwegian front company called Noratom which took a 2% commission on the transaction. Britain was challenged about the heavy water deal at the IAEA after it was exposed on Newsnight in 2005. British Foreign Minister Kim Howells hid behind the Noratom contract and claimed this was a sale to Norway. But a former British intelligence officer who investigated the deal at the time confirmed that this was really a sale to Israel and the Noratom contract was just a charade.[9] The Foreign Office finally admitted in March 2006 that Britain knew the destination was Israel all along.[10]
In 1961, the Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion informed the Canadian Prime Minister John Diefenbaker that a pilot plutonium-separation plant would be built at Dimona. British intelligence concluded from this and other information that this "can only mean that Israel intends to produce nuclear weapons".[11] By 1969, U.S. Defense Secretary Melvin Laird believed that Israel might have a nuclear weapon that year.[12][13] Later that year, U.S. President Richard Nixon in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir pressed Israel to "make no visible introduction of nuclear weapons or undertake a nuclear test program", so maintaining a policy of nuclear ambiguity.[14] By 1979 U.S. Intelligence believed Israel had designs and fissile material for nuclear weapons, and were perhaps in a position so they could test a more advanced small tactical nuclear weapon or thermonuclear weapon trigger design.[15]
On October 5, 1986, the British newspaper ''The Sunday Times'' ran Mordechai Vanunu's story on its front page under the headline: "Revealed: the secrets of Israel's nuclear arsenal".
The first public revelation of Israel's nuclear capability (as opposed to development program) came in the London based ''Sunday Times'' on October 5, 1986, which printed information provided by Mordechai Vanunu, formerly employed at the Negev Nuclear Research Center, a facility located in the Negev desert south of Dimona. For publication of state secrets, he was sentenced to 18 years in prison for treason and espionage. Although there had been much speculation prior to Vanunu's revelations that the Dimona site was creating nuclear weapons, Vanunu's information indicated that Israel had also built thermonuclear weapons.[16]
In 1998, former Prime Minister Shimon Peres said that Israel "built a nuclear option, not in order to have a Hiroshima but an Oslo".[17] The "nuclear option" may refer to a nuclear weapon or to the nuclear reactor near Dimona, which Israel claims is used for scientific research. Peres, in his capacity as the Director General of the Ministry of Defense in the early 1950s, was responsible for building Israel's nuclear capability.[18]
Nuclear weapons capability
According to The Nuclear Threat Initiative, based on Vanunu's information, Israel has approximately 100–200 nuclear explosive devices by 1980' and the Jericho missile delivery system. A United States Defense Intelligence Agency report (leaked and published in the book '' by journalist Rowan Scarborough in 2004) puts the number of weapons at 82. U.S. intelligence sources in the late 1990s estimated 75–130,[19]and 400 in the early 2000s according to some sources at the U.S air force intelligence[20] or even as early as the mid 1990s.[21] The difference might lie in the amount of material Israel has on store versus assembled weapons.
Israel has operated three modern German-built ''Dolphin''-class submarines[22] since 1999. Various reports indicate that these submarines are equipped with American-made Harpoon missiles modified to carry small nuclear warheads[23] and/or, and more possible[24], larger Israeli-made "Popeye Turbo" cruise missiles, originally developed by Israel for air-to-ground strike capability.[25]
No known nuclear weapons test has been conducted within Israel, although the boosted weapons shown in Vanunu's photographs may well have required testing. It is also possible that the Israelis received results from French nuclear testing in the 1960s. In June 1976, the West Germany Army magazine, ''Wehrtechnik'', claimed that a 1963 underground test took place in the Negev, and other reports indicate that some type of non-nuclear test, perhaps a zero yield or implosion test, may have occurred on 2 November 1966.[26] In September 1979, a Vela satellite may have detected a 3 kiloton oceanic nuclear explosion near South Africa, accompanied by underwater acoustic and ionospheric effects which may have been a joint nuclear test between Israel and South Africa (see Vela Incident and Israel-South Africa relations).
In an interview the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert appeared to have admitted that Israel possesses nuclear weapons. However, an Israeli spokesman later stated that Olmert meant to give no such statement, and there has been no change in policy on nuclear weapons.[27]
On February 1, 2007, President Chirac of France commented on the Nuclear ambitions of Iran, hinting on possible nuclear countermeasures from Israel:
''Where will it drop it, this bomb? On Israel? It would not have gone 200 metres into the atmosphere before Tehran would be razed''.[28]
Timetable of Estimates of the Israeli Nuclear Arsenal
The State of Israel has never made public any details of its nuclear capability or arsenal. The following is a history of estimates by many different reputable sources on the size and strength of Israel's nuclear arsenal.
★ 1967 (Six Day War)- 2 bombs[29]; 13 bombs[30]
★ 1969- 5-6 bombs of 19 kilotons yield each [31]
★ 1973 (Yom Kippur War)- 13 bombs[32]; 20 nuclear missiles plus developed a suitcase bomb[33]
★ 1974- 3 capable artillery battalions each with 12 175mm tubes and a total of 108 warheads[34]; 10 bombs[35]
★ 1976- 10-20 nuclear weapons[36]
★ 1980- 200 bombs [37]
★ 1984- 12-31 atomic bombs[38]; 31 plutonium bombs and 10 uranium bombs[39]
★ 1985- at least 100 nuclear bombs[40]
★ 1986- 100 to 200 fission bombs and a number of fusion bombs[41]
★ 1991- 50-60 to 200-300[42]
★ 1992- more than 200 bombs[43]
★ 1994- 64-112 bombs (5kg/warhead)[44]; 50 nuclear tipped Jericho missiles, 200 total[45]
★ 1995- 66-116 bombs (at 5kg/warhead)[46]; 70-80 bombs[47]; "A complete Repertoire" (neutron bombs, nuclear mines, suitcase bombs, submarine born)[48]
★ 1996- 60-80 plutonium weapons, maybe more than 100 assembled, ER variants, varitable yields[49]
★ 1997- More than 400 deliverable thermonuclear and nuclear weapons[50]
Chemical weapons
Israel has signed but not ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). There are speculations that a chemical weapons program might be located at the Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR) in Ness Ziona [2]. Professor Marcus Klingberg, deputy director of the institute, was sentenced in 1983 to 20 years in prison after being found guilty of the charge of being a Soviet spy. The government kept the matter secret for a decade, arguing it was a sensitive issue.[51]
190 liters of dimethyl methylphosphonate, a CWC schedule 2 chemical used in the synthesis of Sarin nerve gas, was discovered in the cargo of El Al Flight 1862 after it crashed in 1992 en route to Tel Aviv. Israel insisted the material was non-toxic, was to have been used to test filters that protect against chemical weapons, and that it had been clearly listed on the cargo manifest in accordance with international regulations. The shipment was from a U.S. chemical plant to the IIBR under a U.S. Department of Commerce license.[52]
In 1993, the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment WMD proliferation assessment recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared offensive chemical warfare capabilities. Former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense responsible for chemical and biological defense, Bill Richardson, said in 1998 "I have no doubt that Israel has worked on both chemical and biological offensive things for a long time ... There's no doubt they've had stuff for years".[53]
Biological weapons
Israel is not a signatory to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). It is assumed that the Israel Institute for Biological Research in Ness Ziona develops vaccines and antidotes for chemical and biological warfare. Nes Ziyyona
While it is believed that Israel is not currently producing chemical or biological weapons, there remains speculation that Israel's ability to start production and dissemination, if necessary, remains active.[54]
In 1993, the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment WMD proliferation assessment recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having an undeclared offensive biological warfare program.
Delivery Systems
Missiles
★ Israel is known to have tested two versions of the Jericho missile system. The 'Jericho I' with a range of 500km and the 'Jericho II' with a range of 1,500km.
★ The Shavit rocket is used for inserting objects into a low earth orbit.
★ Third version of the Jericho missile is possible. Jericho III is thought to have been in service since mid-2005. With a payload of 1,000 - 1,300 kg it has a range of 4,800 km, or 7,800km with a payload of 350kg (one Israeli nuclear warhead). This gives Israel, at least, nuclear strike capability against Africa, Europe, and most of Asia.
★ Popeye turbo cruise missile with a range of 1,500km.
Aircraft
★ Lockheed Martin F-16I Sufa ("Storm")
★ McDonnell Douglas/Boeing F-15 Eagle Baz 2000 (A/B/C/D/E)
Marine
★ Dolphin Class - Type 800 coastal submarines - "Nuclear capable", according to ''The Washington Post'' [3]
See also
★ Samson Option
External links
★ Israel's Atomic Weapons at Better World Links
★ Britain's dirty secret - Secret papers show how Britain helped Israel make the A-bomb in the 1960s, ''New Statesman'' by Meirion Jones, 10 March 2006
★ Secret sale of UK plutonium to Israel, BBC, 10 March 2006
★ How Britain helped Israel get the bomb by Michael Crick, BBC Newsnight
★ Strategic Doctrine in Israel Special Weapons Guide, Federation of American Scientists
★ Israel Profile at The Nuclear Threat Initiative
★ Israel and the Bomb Avner Cohen's website, including official documents
★ Israel crosses the threshold - Israel, the bomb and the NPT in the Nixon era, based on documents released 28 April 2006
★ Marcus Klingberg, last KGB Spy to be Released in Israel by Dmitry Chirkin, Pravda. Ru
★ History of a hot potato by Yehiam Weitz, ''Haaretz'', January 14, 2005
★ IIBR official website The Israel Institute for Biological Research
★ Israel at Nuclear Files.org, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation
★ Nuclear Stockpiles Current information on nuclear stockpiles in Israel at Nuclear Files.org, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation
★ Israel and Chemical/Biological Weapons: History, Deterrence, and Arms Control, Avner Cohen, The Nonproliferation Review/Fall-Winter 2001
★ Should Israel give up its nukes?, Pentagon study about nuclear nonproliferation in Middle East, by George Bisharat, ''LA Times'', December 2005
★ Israel deploys nuclear arms in submarines by Peter Beaumont and Conal Urquhart, ''The Observer'', October 12, 2003
★ The Untold Story of Israel's Bomb By Avner Cohen and William Burr, ''Washington Post'', April 30, 2006
★ The Third Temple's Holy Of Holies: Israel's Nuclear Weapons by Lt. Col. Warner D. Farr, US Army.
★ JIC Israel Nuclear file 1960-61 Part 1
★ JIC Israel Nuclear file 1960-61 Part 2
★ Time to Open the Nuclear Gates - Israel’s “nuclear ambivalence” strategy
References
1. Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance
2. Redefining the bomb Khaled Dawoud
3. Avner Cohen and William Burr, The Untold Story of Israel's Bomb, ''Washington Post'', April 30, 2006; B01.
4. Background Information, 2005 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
5. Transcript of the Director General's Interview with Al-Ahram News Mohamed ElBaradei
6. Olmert: Iran wants nuclear weapons like Israel
7. Olmert Says Israel Among Nuclear Nations
8. Nuclear Weapons - Israel, Federation of American Scientists. Retrieved June 23, 2007.
9. Britain's dirty secret Meirion Jones
10. Statement from the Foreign Office
11. Atomic Activities in Israel
12. Israel crosses the threshold
13. Stopping the introduction of nuclear weapons into the Middle East
14. Discussions with the Israelis on nuclear matters
15. The 22 September 1979 Event
16. Mordechai Vanunu: The Sunday Times articles
17. Peres admits to Israeli nuclear capability
18. Israel and the Bomb: Principal players
19. Nuclear weapons - Israel
20. U.S. Air Force: Israel has 400 nukes, building naval force, World Tribune.com, July 4, 2002
21. Could Israel's nuclear assets survive a pre-emptive strike?, Harold Hough, Jane's Intelligence Review, 1997-09-01
22. Dolphin Class Submarines
23. Israel Adds Fuel to Nuclear Dispute Douglas Frantz
24. [1]
25. Popeye Turbo
26. The Third Temple's holy of holies: Israel's nuclear weapons
27. Israel Denies Policy Change After Olmert Nuclear Arms Hint
28. Chirac Strays From Assailing a Nuclear Iran
29. 150. Burrows and Windrem, op. cit., 280 and Cohen, Israel and the Bomb, op. cit., 273-274.
30. Data from Time, 12 April 1976, quoted in Weissman and Krosney, op. cit., 107.
31. Tahtinen, Dale R., The Arab-Israel Military Balance Today (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1973), 34.
32. How Israel Got the Bomb.” Time, 12 April 1976, 39.
33. Burrows and Windrem, op. cit., 302.
34. Kaku, op. cit., 66 and Hersh, op. cit., 216.
35. Valéry, op. cit., 807-09.
36. Data from CIA, quoted in Weissman and Krosney, op. cit., 109.
37. Ottenberg, Michael, “Estimating Israel's Nuclear Capabilities,” Command, 30 (October 1994), 6-8.
38. Pry, op. cit., 75.
39. Ibid., 111.
40. Data from NBC Nightly News, quoted in Milhollin, op. cit., 104 and Burrows and Windrem, op. cit., 308.
41. Data from Vanunu quoted in Milhollin, op. cit., 104.
42. Harkavy, Robert E. “After the Gulf War: The Future of the Israeli Nuclear Strategy,” The Washington Quarterly (Summer 1991), 164.
43. Burrows and Windrem, op. cit., 308.
44. Albright, David, Berkhout, Frans and Walker, William, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium 1996. World Inventories, Capabilities, and Policies (New York: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute And Oxford University Press, 1997), 262-263.
45. Hough, Harold, “Israel's Nuclear Infrastructure,” Jane's Intelligence Review 6, no. 11 (November 1994), 508.
46. Ibid., 262-263.
47. Spector, and McDonough, with Medeiros, op. cit., 135.
48. Burrows and Windrem, op. cit., 283-284.
49. Cordesman, op. cit., 1996, 234.
50. Brower, Kenneth S., “A Propensity for Conflict: Potential Scenarios and Outcomes of War in the Middle East,” Jane's Intelligence Review, Special Report no. 14, (February 1997), 14-15.
51. Last KGB Spy to be Released in Israel Dmitri Chirkin
52. Israel says El Al crash chemical 'non-toxic'
53. Debunking the "ethno-bomb"
54. Israel and WMD: Incentives and Capabilities
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