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As China became more powerful economically in the 1990's and early 2000's, numerous social problems emerged and intensified. As President Jiang Zemin gradually retired from his position of power, "fourth-generation" leaders Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, faced with increasing social unrest, attempted to steer the country back from the path of focusing solely on economic development to a focus on creating an overall balance in a "harmonious society". In this process, there was an unprecedented shift in stance towards favouring rural development and farmers. The Hu-Wen government, however, attempted to restrict some personal freedoms, especially those associated with political content on the Internet.

Contents

"Fourth Generation": The Hu-Wen Administration

New place on the Global stage

China today

Social welfare

Remaining challenges

Population

Corruption

Media control

Pollution

The SARS Public Health Crisis

Avian Flu

Taiwan

Future prospects

References

See also

External links

"Fourth Generation": The Hu-Wen Administration

In November 2002 Jiang Zemin stepped down from the powerful Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China to make way for a younger "fourth generation" of leadership led by Hu Jintao. Speculation remained, however, that Jiang would continue to wield significant influence. This speculation quickly subsided after Jiang stepped down under pressure as Chairman of the Central Military Commission later in September 2004, allowing Hu to take over all three top posts — in control of the State, Party, and military. This marked the first time in the PRC that a power transfer was completed in peace.
It was believed at the time that six out of the nine new members of the powerful Standing Committee (Wu Bangguo, Jia Qinglin, Zeng Qinghong, Huang Ju, Wu Guanzheng, and Li Changchun) are close to Jiang's so-called "Shanghai clique." This would give Jiang considerable influence over the nine-man body. Hu is not associated with this clique. The 22-member Politburo is in theory elected by the Party's central committee. Real power in the PRC lies with the body's Standing Committee, which works as a kind of inner cabinet and groups together the country's most influential leaders. At the 2002 16th Party Congress, the Standing Committee was expanded to include nine members.
The new leadership was led by President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, hence termed Hu-Wen Administration. Hu is a hydraulic engineer who graduated from China's prestigious Tsinghua University, is believed to be highly intelligent and to have a photographic memory. His career is remarkable for his rapid ascendancy to power, attributed to his moderate views and careful attention not to offend or alienate his older backers. He is the first party chief to have joined the Communist Party after the Revolution over 50 years ago. In his 50s, Hu was the youngest member by far of the then seven-member Standing Committee. Premier Wen is a geology engineer whose political status was never diminished despite being a former ally to disgraced leader Zhao Ziyang.
Since taking over as Party General Secretary, Hu Jintao has appeared to have a more egalitarian style than his predecessor. He has focused on sectors of the Chinese population which have been left behind by the economic reform, and has taken a number of high profile trips to the poorer areas of China with the stated goal of understanding these areas better.
Nevertheless, the effects of leadership differences should not be overstated. Within the top leadership of the PRC, there is widespread agreement that Chinese economic reform should continue and policy differences are confined to relatively minor matters.
The government also ran into trouble with the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, surrounding Basic Law and democratic reform. Although the region enjoys a high degree of autonomy in all areas except for defence and foreign affairs, the Central Government in Beijing desired to keep appointment powers for the Hong Kong Chief Executive as well as part of the Hong Kong legislature. These continued powers led to unrest with certain segments of the Hong Kong population, who demanded direct elections for the Chief Executive and the legislature. There were thousands of protestors who took to the streets in 2005 demanding such a change.

New place on the Global stage

Hu Jintao's serious public image has led China to a more staunch stance on global affairs as compared to the Jiang era. Recognized as the world's next superpower, Hu's government was eager to demonstrate China's position of relative influence today. China was the mediating nation in the Six-party talks, in an attempt to calm threats from North Korea's nuclear program. Being the sole remaining powerful ally of North Korea, China continued to supply the rogue state with food and oil, as well as financial aid. North Korea's nuclear test in October 2006 came as a major embarrassment to the Chinese government's policies, and marked the beginning to an eventual split between China and North Korea. In October 2006, there was evidence to suggest that China had cut off certain supplies, including food and oil, to North Korea. The dictator, Kim Jung-Il, has shown a less cordial attitude towards China, but has no option but to comply should China continue cuts in exports. China has also taken an increasingly prominent role in Africa. President Hu went on a 7-nation African visit in January 2007, solidifying deals and promising financial aid with African leaders with no conditions attached, winning the support, albeit with some caution, of many African leaders.

China today

Social welfare

Chinese society has been revolutionized from the top down, going through its own industrial revolution of sorts, rapidly moving from an agrarian society to an urbanized one. This transition is perhaps the most substantial improvement in day-to-day living standards in history. Presently, China has a rate of poverty of only 12% (by official estimates) with few lacking basic amenities like food, shelter, and health care. Along with Vietnam, these two East Asian Communist states, which have embraced "market socialism" over the past two decades, have been the most rapidly developing nations. Over the 1990s the GDP of China, which has rejected neoliberal democratization and privatization, has roughly doubled while that of Russia, which has adhered to the dictates of the Washington Consensus, has roughly halved.
Before 1949, the illiteracy rate in China was 80 percent. Now, illiteracy has declined to less than five percent. Before the founding of the People's Republic of China, the life expectancy of the Chinese people averaged 35 years. Now it is in the low 70s. The average life expectancy of Chinese residents was eight years lower than that of the residents of developed countries, but 10 years higher than that of the residents of other developing countries.
China's urban and rural primary health care network has persisted in prophylactic health work. China had basically eliminated snail fever by the end of the 1950s; filarial infection by 1994; and poliomyelitis by 1995. It plans to wipe out leprosy, and iodine deficiency in the upcoming years. Despite the huge increases in life spans, China's population growth has been stabilizing due to lowering birth rates since enacting the one or two-child policies in the late 1970s. Population growth exploded under Mao's rule, failing to enact population controls, due to stability, improving nutritional intakes, and increasing life expectancy (so-called "barefoot doctors" used to establish clinics even in the remotest regions of the countryside, bringing free access to vaccination, preventative medicines, birth control and promoting better standards of sanitation). Thus, China has largely resolved the problems of over-population and malnourishment. As a result, China's prospects for maintaining stability are relatively good, enabling one to project that continued growth is likely.

Remaining challenges

Main articles: Social issues in the People's Republic of China

Population

The leaders of the PRC now face a daunting task of pushing ahead with major economic reforms while managing its vast population of 1.3 billion people. The recent economic reforms have undermined the socialist state's safety net and forced people to look to the private sector for work and services. As the economy faces structural changes, 25 to 30 million state workers have been laid off since 1998 while only 8 million jobs are created annually at the current growth rate. With millions of laid off workers roaming the cities, keeping social order will prove a difficult task. Workers' protests have not been too infrequent, with the government usually heeding to the protestors' demands, while arresting their leaders.
Another potential crisis is the advent of AIDS, which by UN estimates, could reach 10 million cases in 2010. In the Henan province, where perhaps hundreds of thousands of people have been infected with HIV by selling their blood, the government is only beginning to pay attention to the problem. Public awareness and widespread acknowledgement has yet to come. ^[1]
While there have been major economic reforms, the government has been slow on political reform, citing that social stability is vital for a developing economy. Few analysts believe the PRC will democratize quickly, but many see democratization as an inevitable end of the economic reforms. Many in mainland China see one-party rule as effective and any talk of political reform is meant to change the way the party governs, rather than remove it from power. In recent years, local elections with more candidates than positions available have become regular, yet talking about major changes at higher levels remains taboo.

Corruption

A number of leaders, including Jiang Zemin, have acknowledged that corruption could threaten the party's ongoing existence. Opinion polls continually show that corruption (in all sectors of society) is the main complaint of the people. Currently, hospitals, schools, police, and social and legal institutions are constantly affected by bribery and embezzlement. However, the Communist Party of China still asserts a monopoly on exposing corrupt officials and businessmen, and critics accuse the party of selective punishment. Analysts say the authorities are reluctant to pursue senior figures and their allies and punishment comes in the form of political purges rather than genuine law enforcement. Nonetheless, the government has taken some measures to address the situation, strengthening the legal system and trying to make the civil service more professional.

Media control

Chinese leaders understand that news media could be a very effective means to fight against corruption. Media controls have been reduced, as market forces have encouraged tabloid reporting. Yet, the government occasionally fires reporters or shuts down newspapers that stray outside the party-line. The media reforms of Hu Jintao has been considered conservative by Western watchdogs.
The introduction of the Internet and SMS has increased the difficulty of attaining complete control. Moreover, the news media from Hong Kong, protected by Basic Law, has become increasingly involved in news reporting in China and are usually the only media within the PRC that can report the news. (''See'' Internet in the People's Republic of China)

Pollution

China's reliance on Coal will continue to damage its already fragile air quality. Some of its major cities are among the most polluted in the world.

The SARS Public Health Crisis

Main articles: Severe acute respiratory syndrome


In November 2002, a mysterious string of deaths, associated with the flu-like symptoms later known to be the SARS epidemic, took place in Guangdong. To stop panic and avoid possible economic damage, and to preserve face and public confidence, local officials applied tight media control. The central Government was knowingly ignorant of the media control. The international community was misinformed about the existence of this new breed of deadly virus.
In early April, there appeared to be a change in official policy when SARS began to receive a much greater prominence in the official media. Cases emerged where the underestimation of cases was taken into account. After intense international pressure, PRC officials allowed international officials to investigate the situation. In late April, major revelations came to light as the PRC government admitted to underreporting the number of cases due to the problems inherent in the health care system. A number of PRC officials were fired from their posts, including the health minister Zhang Wenkang and the mayor of Beijing Meng Xuenong (a Jiang and Hu supporter, respectively), and systems were set up to improve reporting and control in the SARS crisis. The PRC government delivered an official apology for early slowness in dealing with the SARS epidemic. Chinese President Hu Jintao promised a total disclosure of SARS data and permitted WHO experts to examine the SARS cases. Finally, in July 2003, the WHO declared SARS contained, but warned the disease could emerge again during the next winter. By then the disease had already made its way to Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Canada and various other places.

The crisis marked a period of national mobilization, where schedules around the country shifted to accommodate for the control of the virus. Many educational institutions closed or had highly regulated schedules during the period between April and November 2003, and businesses were open on a very irregular basis. Restaurants, usually the centre of social life in China, were nearing bankruptcy. Quarantine measures were taken across the country, with designated hospitals in major cities treating the illness. The extreme measures left paranoid citizens with common illnesses to treat themselves at home to avoid contracting the virus at a hospital. Many overcrowded schools divided their classes into morning and afternoon groups to avoid contact due to the close proximity of desks. Workplaces took to handing out mandatory latex gloves and face masks, whose production and sales rose dramatically during this period.
The openness in the latter stage of the SARS crisis showed an unprecedented stance in the Chinese government's policies. In the past, rarely had officials stepped down purely because of administrative mistakes. There was never complete disclosure of classified data and no project in China had been under such international inspection. This change in policy has been largely credited to President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. At the heart of the crisis, Hu made a high-profile trip to Guangdong and Wen ate lunch with students at Beijing University. Analysts believe the crisis was a blow to former leader Jiang Zemin, who stayed out of the national spotlight during its duration, and whose political allies, such as Health Minister Zhang Wenkang, were sacked.

Avian Flu

A contemporary crisis, one of the most accessible breeding spots of the avian flu outbreak is on Mainland China. While four other Southeastern Asian countries have reported cases of Avian Flu before China, the Chinese government began taking percautions not long after the SARS outbreak in 2003. Beijing has maintained a strict and transparent policy to gain back a reputation damaged heavily during the SARS outbreak. In October 2005, Premier Wen Jiabao issued a nationwide directive to heavily prosecute the officials who attempted to hide Avian Flu cases. Since then, a total of 13 cases of Avian Flu in humans have been reported on the Mainland.

Taiwan

With Hong Kong and Macau reunited with the mainland, and independence movements in Tibet and Xinjiang largely contained, the main outstanding issue is Taiwan. The strategy of the PRC government was to wait out the term of pro-Taiwan independence President Chen Shui-bian in hopes that the pro-Chinese reunification ticket of Lien Chan and James Soong would win the elections of 2004. Chen, however, was reelected in 2004. Though Chen will unlikely pledge to the One-China Policy to begin negotiations, he has pledged the Four Noes and One Without, which quells any armed conflict in the near future. The situation in the Taiwan strait is considered stable for the moment.

Future prospects

The next 5 years represent a critical period in the PRC's existence. Domestic issues will require much attention. The growing number of public protests against corruption in China, along with the increasing wealth gap, require political action to stabilise the country. Currently China's leaders have focused on economic means of resolving these problems. Whether they will attempt political reforms may decide how successfully China's internal problems can be resolved.
The Olympics are scheduled to take place in Beijing in August 2008. Expo 2010 is scheduled to take place in Shanghai. To investors and firms, mainland China represents a vast market that has yet to be fully tapped. This point is best illustrated by the rapid growth of cell phone and Internet users in mainland China. Educationally, the PRC is forging ahead as partnerships and exchanges with foreign universities have helped create new research opportunities for its students. Human rights issues remain a concern among members of the world community and Chinese activists. Relations with these concerned countries will change in relation to how well the PRC government can "satisfactorily" deal with these problems.
Mainland China's rapid economic growth over the past two decades has accounted for well over half of all growth in the developing world. China's economy is projected to become larger than Japan's in the next decade, with many economists pointing to the possibility of China surpassing the US economy within fifty years.
China's population of ethnic Han Chinese is approximately 90 percent of its entire 1.3 billion people. Of the 1.3 billion, approximately 600 million people live on less than one dollar per day. Consequently, China can add to its labor force about 540 million Han Chinese (90 percent of 600 million) before it encounters the cultural and ethnic workplace challenges that are present in the United States and European Union. In America especially, the racial integration of blacks and whites into a harmonious workplace has been further challenged by the issue of Hispanic migration northward from Central and South America. The only real impediment to China's continued double-digit economic expansion is the educational and skill of its upcoming generation.

References

1. U.S. Embassy in China: Henan "AIDS Villages" Up to 62 Percent HIV Infection Rate

See also

★ Timeline of Chinese history

★ History of present-day nations and states

★ History of Hong Kong

★ History of Macau

★ Foreign relations of the People's Republic of China

External links

★ Future Hegemonic Rivalry between China and the West? (Erich Weede, ''Journal of World-Systems Research'' (1995), Volume 1, Number 14)

★ Chinese Communist Party 16th Party Congress (Leadership profiles from the BBC)

★ "Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping"

★ Young Chinese Forum

★ Are Things Getting Better in China? - 1949 to 1985